The Dead Sea Transform (DST) is seismically active zone capable of producing devastating earthquakes (e.g. the 1202 CE M 7.5). However the seismicity rate of the DST is low, producing on average a single major event each century, last being the M 6.25 1927 Jericho earthquake.
Seismic ground motions can be adversely amplified atop sedimentary basins (e.g. Mexico city, Kobe among others). Most of the population of Israel is concentrated along the coastal plain or atop of deep sedimentary basins (e.g. Zevulun Valley). In contrast with the demographic distribution, most stations of the Israel Seismic Network (ISN) are located on bedrock. Thus, the existing instrumental record of the ISN does not provide the data needed for ground shaking assessment in vulnerable areas of the country. Moreover, since strong ground motions are rare in Israel, an alarming knowledge gap currently exists in the ability to predict ground motions for seismic hazard mitigation.
In this talk I am going to present recent results from an ongoing research focused on forward, and in times backward, modeling of ground motions during strong earthquakes, a collaborative effort with the GSI that utilizes the recently built Earthquake Simulation Cluster. First I will describe our latest effort in modeling the 1927 Jericho Earthquake. Following, I will present results from wave propagation modeling in deep sedimentary structures and their relevance to assessment and mitigation of seismic hazard.